Corporate AI productivity talks focus on future gains

The corporate conversation around artificial intelligence is heavily skewed toward future gains, according to a new Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis report. The analysis of 490,000 earnings call transcripts from publicly traded U.S. firms found that about 95% of productivity discussions involving AI are future-facing. By comparison, about 75% of non-AI productivity conversations shared this outlook, suggesting executives are optimistic about the technology’s long-term impact.

Since ChatGPT’s launch in November 2022, organizations have become increasingly enthusiastic about AI’s ability to raise productivity. However, the report notes that an analysis of 490,000 earnings call transcripts over several years revealed a more subdued forecast. The study found that the share of “productivity-related sentences that also mention AI” was almost zero before ChatGPT was released. This percentage increased significantly in 2023 before leveling off in 2024, then sped up again in 2025 to comprise nearly 15% of productivity sentences by the end of last year.

“Utilization-adjusted total factor productivity grew only 0.07% over the four quarters ending with the first quarter of 2026,” the report stated. It added that AI has reshaped the executive conversation around productivity, “even if its effects are not yet clearly visible in aggregate productivity data.” The report authors concluded that the prevalence of AI mentions on earnings calls is less about currently actualized productivity gains and more about “a corporate sector actively investing in, experimenting with and expecting future gains from AI.”

For employees actively involved in using the technology, the forecast is less confident. The latest Protiviti AI Pulse Survey found that while 28% of C-suite level executives strongly agree that their companies’ job designs are AI-ready, just 13% of CHROs agreed. This disparity highlights a potential disconnect between upper management’s optimism and the reality faced by human resources leaders and the broader workforce.

The technology may actually be creating workplace problems, according to a recent joint survey by Express Employment Professionals and The Harris Poll. That poll found that although most hiring managers said they expect generative AI to improve efficiency, 62% also think AI automation could “diminish their company’s brand personality.” Furthermore, 90% of job seekers said they’re worried about AI’s negative impact on entry-level jobs.

While executives project a bright future, a significant gap exists regarding current readiness. The Federal Reserve analysis indicates a heavy reliance on future expectations rather than current results. [1]Employers may need to verify FMLA certifications before waiting to address these gaps.