UK struggles to fill skilled jobs despite falling migration

The UK’s efforts to cut immigration have clashed with economic dependence on foreign workers to address skill shortages. Home secretary Shabana Mahmood admitted last month that government departments now request additional work visas for roles such as welding at least once every week or two, according to her comments on The Rest Is Politics podcast. This reveals how integral global recruitment has become to the labor market.

Before Brexit, free movement brought in workers, particularly from eastern Europe. More recently, the period known as the “Boris wave” saw a rise in non-EU arrivals. However, net migration has since fallen to 171,000 in the year ending December 2025—half the previous year’s total—putting pressure on the system. Despite this, the demand for skilled labor persists. The Construction Industry Training Board (CITB) estimates the sector requires 41,200 extra workers annually to meet demand, offset retirements, and reduce attrition. Without these workers, projects risk delays or canceled tenders as employers compete for limited talent. In manufacturing, Make UK reports 48,000 vacancies, with nearly half of firms listing skills shortages as their top growth obstacle.

Short-term fixes strain domestic training timelines

Relying on domestic training alone will not solve the problem quickly. A level 3 plate-welder apprenticeship, the type needed for defense or infrastructure projects, takes 36 months before assessment. Starting an apprentice today means they will not qualify until 2028 or 2030 at the earliest. In the meantime, companies like Babcock and BAE Systems are recruiting hundreds of welders and electricians from the Philippines and South Africa, describing the move as a short-term solution that could last for years.

The government’s industrial strategy aims to expand eight key sectors, including clean energy and advanced manufacturing, requiring 1.8 million new workers by 2035. Construction alone needs 493,000 additional workers, while defense and clean energy face shortages of 53,000 and 63,000, respectively. These figures do not include replacements needed due to retirements or departures. Advanced manufacturing alone will require 148,000 new hires by mid-decade. Three-fifths of the priority occupations are already in high demand, with a quarter labeled critical. The issue is not whether the UK should train more engineers, welders, and technicians, but whether the system can produce them fast enough.

Domestic training programs face significant time constraints. A level 3 plate-welder apprenticeship, for example, demands 36 months before assessment, meaning employers hiring today will not see qualified workers until at least 2028 or 2030. Even shorter programs, like level 2 welder apprenticeships, take 18 months plus additional assessments, leaving gaps that cannot be filled quickly.

Apprenticeship levy backfires on industry hiring

Industry data confirms these delays. The Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET) found that 76% of engineering and technology employers struggle to recruit for key positions, with only 61% confident their workforce is prepared for future demands. Half of these firms cite insufficient time as the main barrier to adequate upskilling, while 46% point to high staff turnover as a complicating factor. Apprenticeship starts in manufacturing and engineering have declined by around 40% since the Apprenticeship Levy was introduced, further straining the labor supply. Without immediate solutions, the gap between current skills and future needs will widen, risking project delays and higher tender costs across industries.

Major employers have turned to overseas recruitment as an immediate workaround. However, given the long timeline for domestic training, where even accelerated programs take years to produce qualified workers, this approach may continue for the foreseeable future. The CITB warns that without additional workers, projects could face cancellations or rising costs as firms compete for scarce talent. In manufacturing, Make UK’s 2026 survey found that 99% of employers consider skills access critical to growth, with half identifying shortages as their top barrier.

Immigration stays critical despite training delays

The government’s own projections highlight the urgency. Skills England estimates that priority occupations, ranging from construction to clean energy, will require 1.8 million new workers by 2035, with replacement demand alone adding another 101,000 hires in advanced manufacturing. The focus has shifted from whether the UK should train more domestic workers to whether the system can deliver them in time to meet industrial goals. For now, immigration remains the most practical solution, even as officials acknowledge its ongoing necessity.