The labor market continues to show signs of life despite a volatile year, according to the latest report from The Conference Board. The group’s Employment Trends Index climbed in July, indicating that there may be continued resilience in the labor market. Conrad Qi, an economic data scientist associate at the organization, stated in a Monday release that the rebound occurred despite the ‘low-hire, low-fire’ backdrop. Qi noted that the growth left the index only 0.6% above where it was a year ago, signaling that payroll growth may remain modest in the months ahead.
Multiple factors have made the job market even more volatile this year, per the report. Hiring volatility involved seasonal education worker cuts and normalizing leisure and hospitality hiring after the FIFA World Cup, which lowered non-farm payrolls by 23,000 in July. The composite index for payroll employment declined in May and June, but it increased last month following an upwardly revised June reading. Qi explained that the index’s largest negative factor was a July increase in the share of involuntary part-time workers, although industrial production also had a negative impact.
Positive contributions to the Employment Trends Index were led by the share of small firms reporting that jobs are “not able to be filled right now” and initial claims for unemployment insurance. The small firm measure rose 4 percentage points to 36% in July from 32% in June, its highest level since June 2025 — an indication that small businesses are seeking to hire more people. Job openings increased by an estimated 168,000 to 7.53 million, which also positively contributed to the index.
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For the average worker, the fluctuating numbers signal a period of uncertainty where employers remain cautious about immediate expansion even as they struggle to find qualified candidates to fill open roles. This dual dynamic of scarce labor supply and selective hiring often creates a frustrating experience for job seekers who find their applications filtered out despite a reported shortage of workers.
Consumer confidence and hiring outlooks have shifted as well. A recent report from Resume.org found that while 92% of companies said they plan to hire in 2026, more than half expected layoffs due to AI (44%), reorganization/restructuring (42%) and budget constraints (39%). Organizations said they are specifically looking to hire workers who can demonstrate problem-solving skills, learn new tools and technologies quickly and have good communication skills. The pressure to adapt creates a challenging environment for candidates seeking stable employment in a rapidly changing industry.
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